Green Coffee Bean Market Report: Global Prices, Trends and Forecast

The global green coffee bean market entered the second half of 2026 with improving production prospects, record consumption, softer average price expectations and continued sensitivity to weather, certified inventories, freight costs, currency movements and regulatory requirements. The market is more balanced than during the previous period of severe supply pressure, but physical availability remains uneven across origins, qualities and shipment periods. Commercial Robusta and standard Brazilian Arabica may become easier to source as larger crops reach the market, while Fine Robusta, washed Milds, specialty microlots, certified coffee and EUDR-ready lots can continue to command firm premiums.

Green coffee bean prices are influenced by more than the benchmark futures market. The final price paid by an importer or roaster includes the futures reference, origin differential, physical quality, processing method, screen size, defect tolerance, crop year, traceability, packaging, inland logistics, ocean freight, insurance, financing and destination charges. Buyers should therefore evaluate the complete landed cost rather than assuming that a decline in New York or London futures will produce an identical reduction in every physical coffee offer.

Global coffee production for the 2026/27 season is forecast at approximately 189.7 million 60-kilogram bags, around 6% higher than the previous season. Consumption is expected to reach approximately 179.7 million bags, representing growth of about 3.6%. This creates a potential production-consumption difference of nearly 9.9 million bags before inventory changes, processing losses, shipment timing and statistical adjustments are considered.

Global green coffee bean market overview

What is driving the green coffee market in 2026?

The most important market driver is the expected recovery in global production. Brazil is forecast to harvest a significantly larger Arabica crop, Vietnam is expected to maintain exceptionally high Robusta output, and production may improve in Colombia, Ethiopia and parts of Central America.

At the same time, the market is not moving into unrestricted oversupply. Global demand remains strong, commercial stocks were reduced during previous deficits and certified exchange inventories remain relatively low. The market may therefore require more than one successful crop cycle to rebuild comfortable buffers.

The principal forces shaping the market include:

• Brazil’s larger Arabica crop
• Vietnam’s record or near-record Robusta production
• Strong demand for commercial espresso and instant coffee
• Record global consumption
• Low certified inventories
• Uncertainty surrounding El Niño and regional weather
• Producer selling behaviour
• Freight and insurance costs
• Currency movements in producing countries
• EUDR preparation and traceability requirements

Global green coffee price trends

International coffee prices remained volatile during the first half of 2026. The market experienced downward pressure as production forecasts improved, but price declines were repeatedly interrupted by weather concerns, low certified stocks and changing expectations for Brazilian and Vietnamese crops.

The International Coffee Organization composite price averaged approximately 248.90 US cents per pound during June 2026, around 2.8% lower than the previous month. The indicator moved between a monthly low near 231.96 cents and a high close to 272.39 cents, demonstrating that the market remained highly sensitive despite the more favourable supply outlook.

These indicators describe broad international price groups rather than final physical offers. Individual lots may trade above or below the averages depending on grade, screen, defects, processing, certification, shipment timing and origin differential.

Arabica market outlook

World Arabica production is expected to reach approximately 105.9 million bags in 2026/27, about 12.1% higher than the previous season. Brazil accounts for most of the projected increase, while Colombia and selected Central American origins may also recover.

A larger Arabica crop can create:

• Higher export availability
• Lower average New York futures prices
• Reduced differentials for standard Brazilian qualities
• Greater flexibility for commercial roasters
• More opportunity to increase Arabica percentages in blends
• Gradual rebuilding of importer and roaster inventories

However, the Arabica market should not be treated as one uniform category. Brazilian naturals, Colombian Milds, Central American washed coffees, Ethiopian naturals and specialty microlots have different supply conditions and pricing structures.

Brazilian green coffee market

Brazil is forecast to produce approximately 71.9 million bags of coffee in 2026/27, including around 47.5 million bags of Arabica and 24.4 million bags of Robusta and Conilon. Total coffee exports may approach 49.1 million bags, with green coffee exports near 45 million bags.

The larger crop is expected to improve the availability of Brazilian natural Arabica and Conilon. Nevertheless, actual export flow will depend on harvest quality, producer selling, currency movements, domestic prices, warehouse capacity and the speed at which coffee reaches ports.

Brazilian weather risk

Brazil remains the single most important weather risk for the global Arabica market. Favourable rainfall supported flowering and fruit development for the 2026 crop, but excessive rain during harvesting can reduce physical quality and delay drying.

Major Brazilian risks include:

• Frost in vulnerable Arabica regions
• Dry weather during flowering
• High temperatures during fruit development
• Excessive rain during harvest
• Fermentation and drying problems
• Biennial changes in Arabica productivity

Any significant reduction in Brazil’s production forecast could rapidly tighten the market because the projected global surplus depends heavily on the Brazilian recovery.

Robusta market outlook

Global Robusta production is forecast near 83.8 million bags. Although this may be slightly below the previous record, it remains historically high. Vietnam and Brazil are expected to provide most of the internationally traded supply.

Robusta demand remains strong because the coffee is widely used in:

• Commercial espresso blends
• Instant coffee
• Three-in-one products
• Vending
• Foodservice
• Private-label roasted coffee
• High-caffeine formulations

The Robusta market is expected to face downward average price pressure as Vietnamese availability improves. However, Fine Robusta and carefully processed lots can maintain premiums because their supply is much smaller than the total commercial crop.

Vietnamese green coffee bean market

Vietnam is forecast to produce approximately 32.5 million bags in 2026/27, including around 31.4 million bags of Robusta. Total exports may reach approximately 28.95 million bags, while green coffee exports may approach 25.4 million bags.

Vietnam remains one of the most important origins for commercial Robusta, Screen 18, Screen 16, polished coffee, natural Robusta, Fine Robusta and raw material for soluble-coffee production. Buyers comparing production areas and regional profiles can review Vietnam’s coffee origins and growing conditions.

Vietnamese price formation

Vietnamese physical offers are influenced by London Robusta futures, local farmgate prices, the Vietnamese dong, available warehouse stocks, crop quality, screen size, black and broken limits, moisture, polishing and shipment period.

Even when London futures decline, Vietnamese exporters may resist reducing physical offers if farmers hold stocks or local prices remain strong. The physical differential can therefore strengthen while the benchmark market weakens.

Vietnamese Robusta quality segments

Fine Robusta market trend

Fine Robusta is one of the most important premium trends within the green coffee market. Better harvesting, selective cherry collection, controlled fermentation, raised-bed drying, density sorting and professional cupping have improved the reputation of high-quality Robusta.

Fine Robusta may provide:

• Chocolate and cocoa notes
• Caramel sweetness
• Nut and spice characteristics
• Full body
• Strong crema
• Higher caffeine
• Lower cost than many specialty Arabicas

Demand is growing among specialty roasters, premium espresso brands and private-label buyers seeking differentiation. Because the production process requires more labour and quality control, Fine Robusta is not expected to follow commercial Robusta prices exactly.

Colombian green coffee outlook

Colombian coffee production is forecast near 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, approximately 900,000 bags above the previous season. Exports may also reach around 13.4 million bags, including approximately 12.2 million bags of green coffee.

Colombian Milds continue to command substantial premiums because buyers value their washed processing, recognised origin identity, acidity, balance and suitability for premium blends. A production recovery may improve availability, but strong international demand can keep physical differentials firm.

Ethiopian green coffee outlook

Ethiopian production may reach approximately 12.1 million bags, potentially a new record. Farm renovation, higher-yielding plant material, improved processing capacity and stronger export incentives are supporting growth.

Ethiopia remains an important source of washed and natural Arabica with floral, citrus, fruit, tea-like and wine-like characteristics. Regional identity, grade, processing station, traceability and cup quality can create wide price differences between lots.

Indonesian green coffee outlook

Indonesia’s total coffee production is forecast to decline to approximately 11.4 million bags. Excessive rainfall in parts of Southern Sumatra and Java has affected flowering and fruit development, reducing the Robusta outlook.

Lower Indonesian production may support premiums for regional Robusta and wet-hulled Arabica because these profiles cannot always be replaced directly by coffee from Vietnam or Brazil.

Central American coffee market

Combined production in Central America and Mexico is forecast near 17.7 million bags. Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Panama may contribute to regional growth, with Honduras potentially producing close to 6 million bags.

Regional prices remain influenced by:

• Altitude and hard-bean classifications
• Washed processing
• Labour costs
• Leaf-rust pressure
• Hurricane risk
• Availability of certified coffee
• Specialty demand
• Financing conditions

Demand for green coffee beans

Global coffee consumption is expected to reach a record of approximately 179.7 million bags in 2026/27. Demand remains resilient despite higher retail prices because coffee consumption is habitual and supported by many product formats.

Demand growth is supported by:

• Expansion of café culture in Asia
• Growth of branded coffee chains
• Home espresso machines
• Instant coffee
• Ready-to-drink products
• Cold brew
• Private labels
• Single-serve formats
• Premium single-origin coffee
• Traceable and certified products

How retail inflation affects green coffee demand

Higher green coffee costs are eventually transferred to consumers through retail price increases, smaller package sizes or changes in blend composition. The impact can be delayed because roasters may hold inventory or hedging positions.

Consumers may respond by:

• Switching to private-label brands
• Buying smaller packages
• Preparing more coffee at home
• Choosing instant coffee
• Reducing premium out-of-home purchases
• Using promotions more frequently
• Trading down within the same brand portfolio

These changes may protect total coffee volume while shifting demand toward more cost-efficient Robusta and commercial blends.

Certified inventories and nearby supply

Combined certified Arabica and Robusta inventories were near 1.09 million bags at the end of June 2026. Robusta stocks were approximately 0.68 million bags, while Arabica stocks were close to 0.41 million bags.

These levels remain historically limited and can contribute to volatility. Exchange-certified inventories do not represent all coffee available globally, but they provide a visible measure of coffee that meets specific delivery standards and can be used against futures contracts.

Can global coffee stocks recover?

The projected production surplus creates the possibility of stock rebuilding, but the process may be gradual. Earlier deficits reduced inventories held by exporters, importers and roasters, while high financing costs discouraged large stock positions.

Inventory recovery will depend on:

• Actual Brazilian production
• Vietnamese crop performance
• Global consumption growth
• Producer selling behaviour
• Export logistics
• Interest rates
• Currency movements
• Weather during the next flowering cycles

Green coffee export trends

Global green coffee exports are forecast to rise to approximately 131.4 million bags in 2026/27. Total coffee exports across green, roasted and soluble forms may reach around 158.9 million bags.

Green coffee remains the dominant form of international trade because roasting and final manufacturing usually take place closer to the consuming market. Soluble coffee represents the second-largest category, while roasted coffee accounts for a much smaller share of global export volume.

Monthly export performance

Exports of all coffee forms reached approximately 12.38 million bags in May 2026, around 3.2% lower than the same month of the previous year. Exports during the first eight months of the coffee year were approximately 94.82 million bags, close to the previous season’s level.

Short-term export weakness does not necessarily contradict a larger annual crop forecast. Shipment timing can be affected by producer selling, warehouse preparation, port capacity, contract schedules and destination demand.

Freight and logistics trends

Ocean freight remains a major component of the landed cost of green coffee. Port congestion, container shortages, fuel prices, longer maritime routes, war-risk insurance and destination charges can offset part of any decline in the coffee benchmark.

Important logistics risks include:

• Container availability
• Port congestion
• Extended transit times
• Moisture exposure
• Documentation delays
• War-risk surcharges
• Higher insurance costs
• Unexpected destination charges

Buyers should compare FOB, CFR and CIF offers carefully and confirm which costs are included in the quoted price.

Currency effects on green coffee prices

Green coffee contracts are generally priced in US dollars, but producers and exporters operate in local currencies. A weaker producing-country currency can encourage exports because dollar revenue converts into more local currency. A stronger local currency can reduce exporter margins and support higher physical offers.

Currency movements are particularly important in Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia. Futures prices may fall while local farmgate prices remain firm, causing the physical differential to strengthen.

Financing and inventory costs

High interest rates increase the cost of holding coffee. Exporters, importers and roasters must finance inventory, margin requirements, warehouse charges and shipment periods.

Financing affects:

• Farm working capital
• Exporter pre-shipment finance
• Warehouse inventory
• Importer credit
• Futures margin requirements
• Roaster purchasing coverage

Even when global production is sufficient, limited finance can restrict the amount of coffee available for immediate sale.

EUDR and traceable green coffee

European buyers increasingly require geolocation, farm identification, legal-production evidence, deforestation-risk assessment and lot-to-plot traceability. EUDR preparation is creating a separate value layer within the physical coffee market.

Common requirements include:

• Farmer registration
• Plot geolocation
• Production-period records
• Legal-production documentation
• Deforestation-risk assessment
• Lot reconciliation
• Supply-chain due diligence

Traceable and compliance-ready coffee may remain more expensive or more available to European buyers than unidentified aggregated supply. Exporters should connect commercial lots with documented quality, traceability and compliance systems.

Green coffee quality premiums

Physical prices differ according to quality. A global surplus in standard commercial coffee does not automatically eliminate premiums for high-value categories.

How grade affects the physical price

A cleaner, larger and more uniform coffee normally costs more because additional preparation removes defective, small, light or foreign material. This reduces the final exportable yield and increases processing cost.

Important price specifications include:

• Screen size
• Black and broken percentage
• Total defect count
• Moisture
• Water activity
• Density
• Crop year
• Processing method
• Polished or unpolished condition
• Cup profile
• Certification
• Packaging

Natural, washed and honey price differences

Processing method influences both cost and cup value. Natural coffee may be less water-intensive but requires careful cherry selection and drying. Washed coffee includes pulping, fermentation, washing and water management. Honey processing requires controlled mucilage retention and precise drying.

Premiums depend on:

• Labour requirements
• Processing infrastructure
• Drying time
• Risk of fermentation defects
• Traceability
• Resulting cup profile
• Buyer demand

Market forecast for the remainder of 2026

The base-case forecast is for softer annual average green coffee prices as larger crops from Brazil and Vietnam improve physical availability. The decline is unlikely to be continuous because the market remains vulnerable to weather and low stocks.

Under the base case:

• Global production exceeds consumption.
• Brazilian Arabica availability improves.
• Vietnamese Robusta exports increase.
• Average futures prices decline from previous highs.
• Commercial differentials become more competitive.
• Stocks begin a gradual recovery.
• Premium quality and compliance differentials remain firm.

Bullish price scenario

Green coffee prices could rise sharply if production forecasts are reduced or logistics become more difficult.

Bullish risks include:

• Lower-than-expected Brazilian Arabica production
• Rain damage during Brazil’s harvest
• Frost in Brazil
• Drought in Vietnam
• A strong El Niño
• Further production losses in Indonesia
• Rapid consumption growth
• Falling certified inventories
• Producer resistance to selling
• Shipping disruption

Bearish price scenario

Prices could decline further if large crops are confirmed and physical exports accelerate.

Bearish factors include:

• Brazil producing near the upper end of forecasts
• Vietnam exceeding current crop estimates
• Strong producer selling during harvest
• Recovery in certified stocks
• Slower retail consumption growth
• Lower freight costs
• Favourable weather for the next crop
• Reduced financing pressure

World Bank coffee price outlook

Current commodity forecasts indicate that annual average coffee prices may fall as supply improves. Arabica prices have been projected to decline by approximately 14% during 2026, while Robusta prices may fall by around 18%.

These annual projections should not be interpreted as a guarantee for every month or every physical offer. Temporary rallies can still occur if weather conditions, exchange inventories or export flows disappoint the market.

What the market means for importers

Importers should avoid relying on a single price point or purchase month. A structured buying programme can reduce exposure to futures volatility, differential changes and freight risk.

Useful strategies include:

• Layered purchases across several shipment periods
• Separate management of futures and physical differentials
• Approval of alternative origins
• Flexible blend formulations
• Representative sample approval
• Pre-shipment quality control
• Verification of traceability before contracting
• Comparison of freight routes and Incoterms
• Safety stocks for critical products

What the market means for roasters

Roasters may gain access to more competitively priced coffee during 2026, but purchasing decisions should remain aligned with flavour, roast behaviour and consumer positioning.

Roasters should evaluate:

• Screen distribution
• Density
• Moisture
• Water activity
• Defect tolerance
• Cup profile
• Roast loss
• Extraction performance
• Consistency between shipments

What the market means for exporters

Exporters may face lower benchmark prices while buyers demand stronger documentation, quality control and traceability. Competitive supply requires more than offering the lowest FOB price.

Exporters should provide:

• Clear product specifications
• Representative samples
• Reliable shipment schedules
• Lot-level traceability
• Quality-control records
• Flexible packaging
• Accurate export documentation
• FCL and LCL options
• Long-term supply planning

Structured green coffee sourcing, sample approval and export services can help coordinate product quality, commercial terms and shipment execution.

Buyer checklist for green coffee contracts

• Confirm the crop year.
• Define the shipment period.
• Specify the origin and producing region.
• Confirm Arabica or Robusta type.
• Define the processing method.
• Set screen-size requirements.
• Define defect limits.
• Confirm moisture and water activity.
• Approve a representative sample.
• Confirm the pricing basis and differential.
• Verify traceability and compliance.
• Define packaging and container protection.
• Confirm the Incoterm.
• Agree claims and replacement procedures.

Key market indicators to monitor

• Brazilian harvest volume and quality
• Brazilian flowering for the next crop
• Vietnamese rainfall and irrigation
• El Niño development
• Indonesian crop losses
• Colombian production recovery
• Certified exchange inventories
• Monthly export volumes
• Producer selling behaviour
• Freight and insurance costs
• Currency movements
• Retail coffee demand
• EUDR implementation and traceability capacity

Vietnam’s position in the global market

Vietnam is strongly positioned in the 2026 green coffee market because international buyers require commercial Robusta, premium Robusta, instant-coffee raw material and cost-efficient espresso components.

Key Vietnamese export opportunities include:

• Robusta Screen 18
• Robusta Screen 16
• Polished green coffee
• Natural-process Robusta
• Honey-process Robusta
• Fine Robusta
• Vietnamese Arabica
• Traceable regional lots
• Certified coffee
• EUDR-ready supply

The most competitive suppliers will combine reliable volume with consistent quality, transparent specifications, representative samples, traceability and dependable export execution.

Final market assessment

The green coffee bean market in 2026 is moving toward a better global supply balance, but prices remain exposed to weather, inventories, logistics, currencies and quality-specific shortages. Global production of approximately 189.7 million bags is expected to exceed consumption of around 179.7 million bags, creating the potential for lower annual average prices and gradual inventory recovery.

Brazil’s larger Arabica harvest and Vietnam’s strong Robusta crop are the most important supply developments. At the same time, global coffee consumption continues to grow, limiting the amount of coffee available for rebuilding stocks.

The expected supply improvement is most likely to reduce pressure in standard commercial categories. Fine Robusta, specialty Arabica, washed Milds, certified coffee and EUDR-ready lots may continue to trade at substantial premiums because their production, processing and documentation requirements are more demanding.

International buyers should base purchasing decisions on total landed cost, product specifications, cup quality, shipment timing, physical differential, traceability and supply security rather than on benchmark futures alone. Businesses seeking Vietnamese Robusta, Arabica, Fine Robusta or other green coffee products can submit a customised wholesale green coffee inquiry specifying grade, screen size, defect limits, processing, quantity, destination, packaging and shipment period.