Global Coffee Market Report 2026: Prices, Supply, Demand and Forecast

The global coffee market entered the second half of 2026 with improving production prospects, record demand, lower average prices than the previous year and continued sensitivity to weather, certified stocks, shipping costs and regulatory requirements. The central market question is no longer simply whether global coffee supply will recover, but whether the expected increase in the 2026/27 crop can rebuild inventories without being interrupted by adverse weather in Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Colombia or other major origins. Current forecasts point to record production and consumption, creating a more comfortable headline balance while leaving the market exposed to short-term price volatility.

The latest production outlook indicates that global coffee output may reach approximately 189.7 million 60-kilogram bags in 2026/27, an increase of about 6% from the previous season. World consumption is forecast at approximately 179.7 million bags, also a record and around 3.6% higher year on year. The difference between forecast production and consumption is close to 9.9 million bags before adjustments for stock movements, crop-year timing, losses and other balance-sheet factors.

This supply recovery supports a softer annual price outlook, but it does not eliminate market risk. Arabica and Robusta prices remain historically elevated compared with many pre-2024 levels, certified exchange stocks are limited, logistics costs can change rapidly and the physical availability of specific qualities may remain tighter than the global production total suggests.

Global coffee market outlook for 2026

Understanding the coffee-year figures

Global coffee statistics are reported according to coffee years or marketing years that may differ between producing countries. Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia do not all harvest and market their coffee during the same months. A 2026/27 global forecast therefore combines crops harvested at different points during the calendar year.

Buyers should distinguish between:

• Calendar-year production
• Crop-year production
• Coffee-year exports
• Marketing-year consumption
• Available physical stocks
• Exchange-certified stocks
• Contracted but not yet shipped coffee

A forecast showing a global surplus does not mean every grade, screen size, processing method or origin is immediately available. Fine Robusta, washed Arabica, certified lots, EUDR-ready coffee and specific regional profiles can remain tight even when total world production increases.

Coffee price performance in 2026

The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026, down 2.8% from May. The monthly movement was highly volatile. The composite price fell to 231.96 US cents per pound on 9 June, its lowest level in almost two years, before rebounding by 17.4% to 272.39 US cents per pound at the end of the month.

The June movement illustrates the two forces shaping the 2026 market. Improved crop forecasts created downward pressure, while weather concerns, harvest delays, limited certified stocks and geopolitical logistics risks produced rapid rebounds.

Annual coffee price forecast

The broader 2026 price outlook is softer than in 2025. After sharp increases during the preceding period, average Arabica prices are projected to decline by around 14% in 2026, while Robusta prices are projected to fall by approximately 18%. Robusta prices may decline slightly again in 2027 if production remains strong and stocks recover.

This forecast should not be interpreted as a return to permanently low coffee prices. Production costs remain elevated in many origins due to:

• Fertilizer prices
• Farm labour shortages
• Higher wages
• Energy costs
• Inland transport
• Financing costs
• Traceability investments
• Certification and compliance
• Climate-adaptation expenditure

Lower futures prices can reduce the headline value of coffee while origin differentials, quality premiums, logistics and compliance costs remain high.

Why prices fell during early 2026

Coffee prices softened as forecasts for Brazil, Vietnam and global production improved. Market participants began pricing in a stronger 2026/27 Arabica crop, high Robusta availability and the possibility of a meaningful production surplus.

Bearish factors included:

• Expectations of a record Brazilian crop
• Higher Vietnamese production
• Improving global supply forecasts
• Forecast record Arabica production
• Anticipated growth in global exports
• Reduced speculative concern about immediate shortages
• Lower beverage commodity prices compared with 2025 peaks

Improved supply expectations encouraged roasters to shorten coverage in some cases, delay purchases or wait for better differentials. However, this strategy remains risky when inventories are low and weather can reverse price direction quickly.

Why coffee prices remain volatile

Even with a favourable production forecast, the coffee market remains structurally sensitive because output is concentrated in a small number of countries. Brazil and Vietnam together account for a very large share of global Arabica and Robusta supply. A significant production problem in either country can change the world balance rapidly.

Price volatility is supported by:

• Weather concentration in major origins
• Limited certified exchange inventories
• Low supply-chain buffers
• Currency movements
• Speculative futures positioning
• Changes in freight and insurance costs
• Producer selling behaviour
• Crop forecast revisions
• Differences between official and private estimates

In June 2026, combined certified Arabica and Robusta stocks were approximately 1.09 million bags, their lowest level since February 2024. London-certified Robusta stocks ended the month near 0.68 million bags, while US-certified Arabica stocks fell to around 0.41 million bags.

Brazil coffee production forecast

Brazil is expected to be the largest contributor to the 2026/27 global supply increase. The latest international forecast places Brazilian production near 71.9 million bags, approximately 14.1% above the previous season.

Arabica production is forecast at approximately 47.5 million bags, an increase of around 9.5 million bags. Favourable rainfall during flowering and improved fruit development supported the recovery, particularly in Minas Gerais.

Brazilian Robusta and Conilon production is forecast near 24.4 million bags, slightly below the previous record. Cooler temperatures and periods of heavy rainfall affected yields in Espírito Santo, the country’s most important Conilon-producing state.

Forecast uncertainty remains important. Brazil’s official CONAB estimate has been lower than the latest international projection, illustrating how differences in methodology, harvested area, yield assumptions and weather assessment can produce several million bags of variation.

Brazilian weather risks

Heavy rainfall during the normally drier harvest period slowed Arabica harvesting and drying in parts of Brazil during June. Delayed harvesting can affect labour planning, cherry quality, drying consistency and the timing of export availability.

Future risks include:

• Excessive rainfall during harvest
• Dry conditions during flowering
• High temperatures during fruit development
• Frost in vulnerable Arabica regions
• Disease pressure after prolonged rain
• Biennial changes in Arabica yields

A large Brazilian crop remains the principal bearish factor in the market, but confirmation depends on the quantity and quality that actually reaches warehouses and export channels.

Vietnam coffee market outlook

Vietnam is expected to achieve record production of approximately 32.5 million bags in 2026/27. Robusta is forecast to account for around 31.4 million bags, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as the world’s leading Robusta-producing and exporting origin.

Vietnamese coffee exports are forecast near 28.95 million bags, including approximately 25.4 million bags of green coffee. Domestic consumption may reach a record 5 million bags, reflecting the growth of local cafés, branded chains, roasted coffee, instant products and modern consumer formats.

Vietnam’s production recovery supports a softer global Robusta outlook. However, farm-level stocks, producer selling decisions, exchange rates and local prices can affect the speed at which coffee becomes available to exporters.

Risks to Vietnam’s Robusta supply

Vietnam’s 2026/27 forecast remains vulnerable to weather conditions during flowering, fruit formation and the dry-season irrigation period. A strong El Niño could create hotter and drier conditions in parts of Southeast Asia, affecting Vietnam and Indonesia.

Other supply risks include:

• High irrigation costs
• Competition for water
• Rising fertilizer prices
• Conversion of land to more profitable crops
• Ageing coffee trees
• Producer reluctance to sell during falling markets
• Higher domestic consumption
• Increasing traceability requirements

Vietnamese exporters may benefit from the larger crop while facing stronger buyer demands for lot identification, geolocation, legal-production records and verified supply-chain data. Buyers can review Vietnam’s coffee origins and regional growing conditions when comparing Robusta and Arabica sourcing options.

Colombia coffee outlook

Colombian production is forecast to increase to approximately 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, around 900,000 bags above the previous season. This represents a recovery but remains below the 14.8 million bags produced in 2024/25.

Colombia faced excessive rainfall and lower output during parts of 2025/26. The recovery forecast depends on improved weather, flowering performance and farm productivity. Colombian exports are projected near 13.4 million bags, including approximately 12.2 million bags of green coffee.

Colombian Milds continue to trade at a significant premium due to their washed processing, established market identity and consistent demand from specialty and premium commercial roasters.

Ethiopia coffee outlook

Ethiopian production is forecast to reach a record of approximately 12.1 million bags. Investments in farm renovation, higher-yielding material, improved processing and stronger export incentives have supported output growth.

Ethiopia remains important for both natural and washed Arabica profiles. Export availability can be affected by domestic consumption, financing, stock releases, quality separation and changes in local marketing rules. Exports are forecast near 7.1 million bags.

Indonesia coffee outlook

Indonesia’s production is forecast to fall by approximately one million bags to around 11.4 million in 2026/27. Excessive rainfall during flowering and cherry development in parts of Southern Sumatra and Java is expected to reduce Robusta production.

Arabica output is forecast to remain relatively stable at approximately 1.4 million bags. Total exports may decline to around 8.05 million bags.

Lower Indonesian production partly offsets the larger crops expected from Brazil and Vietnam. Indonesia also remains an important supplier of regional Robusta profiles and specialty Arabicas that cannot be replaced directly by higher-volume origins.

Central America and Mexico

Total coffee production in Central America and Mexico is forecast to rise to approximately 17.7 million bags. Production growth is expected in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Panama.

Honduras may record one of the largest regional increases, with production forecast near 6 million bags. Green coffee exports from Central America and Mexico are projected around 14 million bags.

Regional risks remain linked to:

• Irregular rainfall
• Hurricanes and tropical storms
• Coffee leaf rust
• Farm labour availability
• Producer financing
• Migration from rural areas
• High fertilizer costs

Arabica supply outlook

Global Arabica production is forecast at approximately 105.9 million bags, an increase of around 12.1% and a new record. Brazil is responsible for much of the expansion, supported by improvements in Colombia and parts of Central America.

The larger Arabica crop creates downward pressure on New York futures and on some origin differentials. Nevertheless, the availability of specific washed coffees, specialty lots and certified grades may remain limited.

Arabica buyers should monitor:

• Brazilian harvest quality
• Colombian production recovery
• Central American weather
• Ethiopian export availability
• Certified exchange stocks
• Differentials for washed Milds
• Currency movements in Brazil and Colombia

Robusta supply outlook

Global Robusta production is forecast at approximately 83.8 million bags. This is slightly below the previous season’s record but remains the second-highest level on record.

Vietnam’s larger crop and high Brazilian Conilon availability support the market, while lower Indonesian output limits part of the increase. Robusta availability is also influenced by growing demand from soluble-coffee producers and roasters adjusting blends in response to Arabica prices.

The spread between Arabica and Robusta can influence substitution. When Arabica becomes expensive relative to Robusta, commercial roasters may increase Robusta use. When the price spread narrows, some buyers may return to higher Arabica percentages.

Global coffee exports

Exports of all forms of coffee are forecast to reach approximately 158.9 million bags in 2026/27, an increase of around 8.9%. Green coffee exports may reach a record 131.4 million bags.

During May 2026, global exports of all forms totalled approximately 12.38 million bags, down 3.2% from May 2025. Exports during the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26 were almost unchanged at 94.82 million bags.

Green coffee exports in May were approximately 10.8 million bags, down 4.1% year on year. Robusta shipments increased, while Arabica exports declined.

Arabica represented approximately 60.2% of green coffee exports during the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26, down from 64% in the same period a year earlier. This shift reflected stronger Robusta shipments and weaker Arabica availability before the arrival of Brazil’s new crop.

Exports by product form

Green beans remain the dominant form of international coffee trade. During the first eight months of coffee year 2025/26, green coffee represented approximately 86.5% of exports, soluble coffee 13% and roasted coffee around 0.5%.

Soluble coffee exports increased to approximately 1.51 million bags in May 2026. Vietnam, Brazil and India were the largest soluble-coffee exporters during the month.

Growth in soluble exports reflects:

• Demand for affordable coffee formats
• Expansion of convenience products
• Private-label instant coffee
• Three-in-one products
• Foodservice applications
• Improving freeze-dried quality
• Growing demand in emerging markets

Global coffee consumption

World consumption is forecast to reach approximately 179.7 million bags in 2026/27, a record increase of around 3.6%. This suggests that demand remains resilient despite high green-coffee costs and retail price increases.

Forecast consumption includes:

• European Union at approximately 42.5 million bags
• United States at approximately 26.95 million bags
• China at approximately 6.75 million bags
• Vietnam at approximately 5 million bags
• Continued growth in Brazil, Japan and several emerging Asian markets

Retail consumers may respond to higher prices by changing brands, pack sizes, preparation methods or drinking locations rather than abandoning coffee completely.

Demand trends supporting the market

Global demand is supported by a combination of mature-market stability and emerging-market growth.

Important demand trends include:

• Growth of café culture in Asia
• Expansion of branded coffee shops
• Greater home espresso-machine ownership
• Increased use of instant and soluble coffee
• Ready-to-drink and cold-coffee formats
• Premiumisation in selected consumer segments
• Private-label growth during periods of inflation
• Demand for single-origin and traceable coffee
• Growth of decaffeinated products
• Convenient single-serve formats

How high retail prices affect demand

High green-coffee prices do not pass immediately to consumers. Roasters may use inventory coverage, hedging, blend changes, smaller packages and delayed price adjustments before increasing shelf prices.

When retail increases become unavoidable, consumers may:

• Switch to private-label products
• Purchase smaller packs
• Drink more coffee at home
• Reduce premium out-of-home purchases
• Choose soluble coffee
• Trade down within a brand portfolio
• Use promotions more frequently

Premium consumers may remain less price-sensitive, but mainstream volumes can react when repeated retail increases reduce household purchasing power.

Inventory and stock outlook

The forecast production surplus creates the potential to rebuild global stocks. However, inventory recovery depends on whether the crop forecasts are realised and whether consumption remains near projected levels.

Stocks can be held by:

• Farmers
• Cooperatives
• Exporters
• Trading companies
• Importers
• Roasters
• Exchange-certified warehouses
• Government or institutional programmes

Low exchange-certified stocks can amplify futures volatility even when substantial coffee exists elsewhere in the physical market. Exchange stocks represent coffee meeting specific delivery requirements and do not measure every commercial inventory worldwide.

Weather outlook and El Niño risk

Weather remains the largest variable in the coffee forecast. Market concern increased in June following expectations that a strong El Niño could develop toward the end of 2026.

A strong El Niño may create different effects across producing regions:

• Drier conditions in parts of Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and Indonesia
• Higher temperatures and reduced rainfall in northern South America
• Irregular rainfall in Colombia
• Increased rainfall in parts of southern Brazil
• Dryness in Central America and Mexico
• Erratic rain and flooding in parts of East Africa

The timing of the event is critical. Dry weather can help one harvest while damaging flowering for the next crop. Rain can support cherry development but disrupt harvesting and drying.

Climate risk beyond 2026

Long-term climate pressure continues to affect coffee production even if the 2026/27 crop is large. Producers face rising temperatures, irregular rain, drought, flooding, pest pressure and changing suitable growing zones.

Adaptation measures include:

• Shade management
• Irrigation
• Soil-moisture conservation
• Drought-tolerant varieties
• Farm renovation
• Improved drainage
• Integrated pest management
• Crop diversification
• Weather monitoring
• Harvest and drying infrastructure

These investments increase production resilience but also add cost that must be reflected in long-term coffee pricing.

Shipping and logistics risks

Shipping conditions became an important market factor during 2026. Disruptions affecting major energy and maritime routes increased fuel, insurance, container and fertilizer costs. Some Asia-Europe shipments faced longer routes and additional transit time.

Logistics risks for coffee buyers include:

• Container shortages
• Port congestion
• Higher bunker-fuel prices
• War-risk insurance
• Longer transit routes
• Delayed documents
• Higher destination charges
• Moisture exposure during extended transit

A lower green-coffee price does not guarantee a lower landed cost when freight, insurance, financing and storage expenses increase.

Currency and financing effects

Coffee is traded internationally in US dollars, while farmers and exporters operate in local currencies. Exchange-rate movements influence producer selling, export competitiveness and buyer costs.

A weaker origin currency may encourage exports by increasing the local-currency value of dollar sales. A stronger origin currency can reduce exporter margins or increase the dollar price needed to secure physical coffee.

Higher interest rates also increase:

• Inventory financing costs
• Margin requirements
• Pre-shipment finance
• Importer working-capital needs
• The cost of holding long-term coverage

EUDR and traceability in the 2026 market

European market access is increasingly connected with deforestation-free sourcing, legal production and supply-chain traceability. The EUDR is scheduled to apply from 30 December 2026 for large and medium-sized operators and from 30 June 2027 for many micro and small operators.

Commercial preparation may require:

• Farmer registration
• Plot identification
• Geolocation data
• Production-period records
• Legal-production evidence
• Deforestation-risk assessment
• Lot-to-plot reconciliation
• Due-diligence documentation

Coffee that is fully traceable and prepared for buyer compliance systems may command a different differential from conventional aggregated supply. Suppliers should connect commercial lots with documented quality, traceability and compliance procedures.

Specialty coffee outlook

Specialty demand remains supported by consumers seeking quality, origin transparency, processing innovation and producer stories. However, high green-coffee prices can pressure roaster margins and make expensive microlots more difficult to sell.

Specialty buyers may respond by:

• Purchasing smaller quantities
• Using regional blends
• Increasing Fine Robusta content
• Offering fewer seasonal products
• Securing long-term producer relationships
• Using flexible price bands
• Improving retail communication

The specialty segment is less connected to futures prices than mainstream commercial coffee, but it is still affected by benchmark changes, freight and producer opportunity costs.

Fine Robusta opportunities

High Arabica prices and greater recognition of Robusta quality continue to create opportunities for Fine Robusta. Carefully harvested and processed Robusta can offer chocolate, caramel, nut, fruit and spice characteristics while maintaining body, crema and caffeine.

Fine Robusta can be used for:

• Premium espresso blends
• Single-origin products
• Specialty filter coffee
• High-quality instant coffee
• Private-label differentiation
• Lower-cost alternatives to selected specialty Arabicas

Vietnam is well positioned to expand this segment through improved harvesting, controlled fermentation, better drying, lot separation and professional cupping.

Instant coffee outlook

Instant coffee remains a major source of demand for Robusta and lower-cost Arabica. High retail inflation can support soluble formats because consumers value convenience, long shelf life and lower cost per cup.

Growth areas include:

• Spray-dried instant coffee
• Freeze-dried premium coffee
• Agglomerated products
• Three-in-one formulations
• Private-label retail packs
• Foodservice and vending
• Cold-soluble applications

Vietnam, Brazil and India remain important suppliers of soluble coffee and industrial raw material.

Private-label coffee outlook

Private-label coffee can benefit when consumers seek lower prices without leaving the category. Retailers may request more competitive blends, alternative pack sizes and flexible sourcing.

At the same time, premium private-label programmes continue to expand through:

• Single-origin coffee
• Specialty Robusta
• Organic products
• Traceable sourcing
• Compostable or recyclable packaging
• Cold-brew and instant formats

Base-case coffee forecast

The base case for the remainder of 2026 and the 2026/27 season assumes that Brazil achieves a strong Arabica harvest, Vietnam reaches record Robusta output and global consumption grows near current forecasts.

Under this scenario:

• Annual average Arabica and Robusta prices decline.
• Global exports increase.
• Inventories begin to recover.
• Origin differentials soften for standard commercial grades.
• Volatility remains higher than historical low-volatility periods.
• Specialty and compliance-ready premiums remain firm.

Bullish coffee-price scenario

Prices could rise materially above the base case if the expected production recovery is reduced.

Bullish risks include:

• Heavy rain damaging Brazil’s harvest quality
• Dry weather affecting Brazil’s next flowering
• A strong El Niño reducing Southeast Asian output
• Lower-than-expected Vietnamese production
• Frost in Brazilian Arabica regions
• Shipping disruption
• Rapid decline in certified stocks
• Strong speculative buying
• Faster-than-expected consumption growth

Because market inventories are not yet abundant, a significant crop revision could generate a rapid price response.

Bearish coffee-price scenario

Prices could fall faster than expected if the large crop forecasts are confirmed and weather remains favourable.

Bearish factors include:

• Brazil producing close to the upper range of forecasts
• Vietnam reaching or exceeding 32.5 million bags
• Strong exports from Brazil and Vietnam
• Recovery of exchange-certified stocks
• Slower retail demand after price increases
• Producer selling pressure during harvest
• Stronger US dollar
• Lower freight and fertilizer costs

What the forecast means for coffee buyers

Buyers should avoid treating the global surplus forecast as a guarantee of continuously falling prices. Purchasing decisions should reflect the required quality, shipment month, origin and inventory risk.

A structured buying strategy may include:

• Layered purchasing rather than one large price decision
• Separate futures and differential management
• Approved alternative origins
• Alternative blend formulations
• Pre-shipment sample approval
• Clear moisture and defect specifications
• Traceability verification before contracting
• Freight comparison by route and Incoterm
• Contingency stock for critical products

What the forecast means for exporters

Exporters may face lower benchmark prices combined with higher buyer expectations. Competing only on price becomes difficult when purchasers require quality consistency, lot data, geolocation, documentation and fast sample approval.

Exporters can strengthen their position through:

• Clear product specifications
• Representative samples
• Reliable shipment schedules
• Lot-level traceability
• Quality-control records
• Flexible packaging
• FCL and LCL shipment options
• Accurate documentation
• Long-term supply planning

Structured coffee sourcing, sample approval and export services can help align production, buyer specifications, documentation and shipment execution.

Buyer checklist for 2026 coffee contracts

• Confirm whether the quotation follows a futures reference or fixed price.
• Define the origin differential.
• Specify crop year and shipment period.
• Confirm Arabica or Robusta type.
• Define screen distribution and defects.
• Agree moisture and water-activity requirements.
• Approve a representative sample.
• Confirm available lot quantity.
• Verify packaging and container protection.
• Clarify EUDR and traceability responsibilities.
• Confirm Incoterm and destination charges.
• Define claims, replacement and arbitration procedures.

Key risks to monitor during the remainder of 2026

• Progress and quality of Brazil’s harvest
• Brazilian flowering for the next crop
• El Niño development
• Vietnamese rainfall and irrigation conditions
• Indonesia’s Robusta losses
• Colombian production recovery
• Certified Arabica and Robusta stocks
• Asia-Europe shipping routes
• Energy and fertilizer costs
• US dollar movements
• EUDR preparation
• Retail demand after further price increases

Vietnam’s position in the 2026 global market

Vietnam enters the new season with a favourable production outlook and strong international demand for Robusta, instant coffee and cost-efficient espresso components. The country can also expand its position in Fine Robusta, controlled processing, regional single-origin lots and traceable supply.

Commercial opportunities include:

• Screen 18 Robusta
• Screen 16 Robusta
• Polished green coffee
• Natural and honey-process Robusta
• Fine Robusta
• Vietnamese Arabica
• Roasted coffee
• Spray-dried instant coffee
• Freeze-dried instant coffee
• Private-label products

The strongest suppliers will be those capable of combining competitive prices with clear specifications, representative samples, traceability and reliable export execution.

Final market assessment

The 2026 global coffee outlook is more comfortable than the extremely tight market conditions that drove earlier price increases, but it is not free from risk. Record production of approximately 189.7 million bags is forecast to exceed record consumption of around 179.7 million bags, supporting lower annual average prices and partial inventory recovery.

Brazil’s Arabica rebound and Vietnam’s record Robusta crop are the most important supply developments. Demand remains resilient, with continued growth in the European Union, United States, China, Vietnam and other markets. Global exports are forecast to reach a new record, improving physical availability for buyers.

At the same time, low certified inventories, weather uncertainty, El Niño concerns, logistics disruption, financing costs and regulatory requirements can create significant short-term volatility. The market may trend lower on average while still producing sharp rallies after adverse weather or supply-chain news.

Buyers should base decisions on landed cost, product quality, shipment timing, differential, traceability and supply security rather than relying only on the headline production surplus. Businesses seeking Vietnamese Robusta, Arabica, specialty coffee, roasted coffee or instant coffee can submit a customised wholesale coffee inquiry specifying product type, quantity, destination, quality, processing, packaging, shipment period and compliance requirements.