Coffee Price Forecast 2026–2027: Will Arabica and Robusta Prices Rise or Fall?

The coffee price forecast for 2026–2027 points to lower average Arabica and Robusta prices compared with the exceptional highs reached during the previous supply squeeze, but buyers should not expect a smooth or uninterrupted decline. Larger crops in Brazil and Vietnam, improving global production and the gradual rebuilding of export availability support a bearish base case. At the same time, low certified stocks, weather uncertainty, rising production costs, shipping disruption and strong consumption mean that sudden price rallies remain possible throughout the forecast period.

As of July 2026, the most probable scenario is that annual average prices ease during 2026 and soften further or stabilize during 2027. Arabica may face greater downward pressure if Brazil’s larger crop reaches the market without serious quality losses, while Robusta may remain comparatively supported by expanding demand from soluble coffee manufacturers, espresso blenders and price-sensitive consumer markets.

Will coffee prices rise or fall in 2026–2027?

The base-case answer is that average prices are more likely to fall than rise, but the market may continue to experience sharp temporary increases. Buyers should distinguish between the annual direction of the market and short-term price movements. Coffee can follow a declining annual trend while still producing strong weekly or monthly rallies when weather, inventories or logistics create concern.

The World Bank’s July 2026 coffee outlook projected Arabica prices to decline by approximately 14% during 2026 and ease again in 2027. Robusta was projected to decline by approximately 18% in 2026, followed by a smaller decline of around 3% in 2027. These projections support a softer medium-term outlook, but they remain highly sensitive to production results and climate events.

Current coffee market position in mid-2026

The International Coffee Organization reported that its Composite Indicator Price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026, representing a decline from May. However, prices fell sharply during the first part of the month and then rebounded as concerns about El Niño and unusually heavy rainfall in Brazilian coffee regions returned to the market.

In June 2026, ICO group prices showed different behaviour across the coffee categories. Colombian Milds averaged approximately 324.60 US cents per pound, Other Milds approximately 307.83 cents, Brazilian Naturals approximately 272.01 cents and Robustas approximately 169.39 cents. New York Arabica futures averaged approximately 256.75 cents per pound, while London Robusta futures averaged approximately 155.90 cents per pound.

These values show that prices had already moved below earlier peaks, but they remained historically elevated. The market was therefore entering the 2026–2027 forecast period from a relatively high starting point, making a decline in annual averages more likely even if prices remained above older long-term norms.

Executive forecast for Arabica and Robusta

Arabica appears more exposed to a significant decline if Brazil successfully delivers its projected crop. Robusta may also fall, but the downside could be more limited because global manufacturers continue to require large Robusta volumes and because demand has expanded in Asia, the Middle East and other emerging markets.

Why coffee prices may fall

The strongest bearish factor is the recovery in production among major origins. The high-price period encouraged farmers to increase spending on fertilizers, irrigation, pruning, crop management and harvesting. When favourable weather combines with these investments, production can recover rapidly.

The main factors supporting lower prices include:

• A larger Brazilian crop
• Improved Vietnamese production
• Higher Robusta and conilon availability
• New-season coffee entering export channels
• Reduced panic buying by roasters
• Improving supply confidence
• Substitution between Arabica and Robusta
• Potential rebuilding of commercial inventories
• Slower demand growth if consumer prices remain high

Brazil’s 2026 crop is the main bearish influence

Brazil remains the most important factor in the global coffee price forecast because it is the largest producer and exporter and supplies both Arabica and conilon. Official Brazilian estimates released during 2026 projected a record or near-record national crop.

CONAB’s second 2026 survey projected total Brazilian production at approximately 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags. Arabica production was forecast at approximately 45.8 million bags, around 28% higher than the previous season, while conilon production was also expected to remain substantial.

A crop of this size can place downward pressure on Arabica prices by increasing physical availability, reducing competition for nearby supply and allowing exporters to rebuild shipment volumes. The bearish effect will depend on whether the harvested coffee meets expected quality standards and reaches ports without serious weather-related delays.

Why Brazil’s larger crop may not cause an immediate collapse

A large production estimate does not guarantee that all coffee becomes available at the same time. During June 2026, heavy rainfall slowed harvesting and drying in important Arabica regions such as Minas Gerais. Rain during the normally drier harvest period can create delays, increase drying costs and affect bean appearance or cup quality.

Factors that could slow the bearish effect of Brazil’s crop include:

• Harvest delays
• Quality deterioration from excessive rainfall
• Limited availability of higher-grade Arabica
• Farmer reluctance to sell at lower prices
• Strong domestic and export demand
• Currency movements that influence producer selling
• Logistics and port congestion

The market may therefore distinguish between total crop volume and immediately deliverable export-quality coffee.

Vietnam’s Robusta outlook for 2026–2027

Vietnam is the most important origin for the Robusta outlook. Improved prices during previous seasons encouraged farmers to invest more heavily in irrigation, fertilizer and crop maintenance. USDA information referenced in the June 2026 ICO report raised Vietnam’s 2025/26 production estimate to approximately 31.7 million bags and forecast production of approximately 32.5 million bags for 2026/27.

If these volumes are achieved, greater Vietnamese availability should place downward pressure on Robusta prices. Buyers may gain more purchasing options, exporters may compete more actively and nearby supply conditions may become less restrictive.

Companies sourcing Vietnamese coffee can examine the main Vietnam coffee origins and production regions when comparing Robusta, Fine Robusta and Arabica supply characteristics.

Why Robusta prices may remain supported

Robusta demand has expanded beyond its traditional role as a low-cost substitute. It is widely used in soluble coffee, espresso blends, ready-to-drink products, commercial roasted coffee and value-oriented retail products.

Robusta prices may receive support from:

• Strong soluble coffee production
• Growth in Asian coffee consumption
• Demand from emerging markets
• High Arabica prices encouraging substitution
• Limited stocks held by some traders and manufacturers
• Climate risk in Vietnam and Indonesia
• Higher fertilizer, labour and irrigation costs

As a result, Robusta may decline from previous extreme levels without returning quickly to the much lower prices seen before the global supply shortage.

Arabica price forecast for the remainder of 2026

The base case for Arabica during the second half of 2026 is a volatile downward trend. New Brazilian crop supply should gradually improve physical availability, but low exchange-certified stocks and uncertainty over quality may prevent a continuous fall.

Arabica prices may decline when:

• Brazilian harvesting accelerates
• Dry weather improves processing conditions
• Export volumes increase
• Certified stocks begin to recover
• Roasters reduce defensive purchasing
• Macroeconomic conditions weaken commodity demand

Arabica prices may rebound when:

• Rain damages harvested coffee
• Frost risk affects Brazilian production areas
• El Niño threatens the following crop
• Colombian supply remains restricted
• Certified stocks continue to decline
• Investment funds rebuild long positions

Arabica price forecast for 2027

The 2027 Arabica outlook depends heavily on the development of Brazil’s next production cycle and the effect of late-2026 weather on flowering and cherry development. A successful 2026 crop can reduce immediate shortages, but the market will quickly begin pricing the following season.

The base case is for Arabica’s 2027 annual average to remain below the extraordinary levels reached during 2025 and early 2026. However, a sharp fall to historically low prices is less certain because production costs have increased and global inventories remain limited.

A bearish 2027 Arabica scenario would require:

• Good Brazilian flowering
• Adequate rainfall during cherry development
• Recovery in Colombian production
• Improvement in certified stocks
• Stable shipping routes
• Moderate global demand growth

A bullish scenario would be triggered by drought, frost, excessive rain, disease, major logistical disruption or disappointing production in two or more important Arabica origins.

Robusta price forecast for the remainder of 2026

Robusta prices are likely to remain sensitive to the release of Vietnam’s remaining stocks, Brazil’s conilon crop and expectations for Vietnam’s next harvest. Improved supply supports lower prices, but strong industrial demand can absorb additional volume quickly.

The base case is for Robusta to trade below previous peak levels while maintaining a substantial value relative to older historical averages. Price weakness may become more visible when exporters compete for forward contracts and manufacturers rebuild coverage.

Robusta price forecast for 2027

Robusta may stabilize earlier than Arabica if demand continues to expand. The World Bank forecast indicated a much smaller decline for Robusta in 2027 than in 2026, reflecting the possibility that most of the supply-driven correction occurs during 2026.

Robusta’s 2027 direction will depend on:

• Vietnamese crop size
• Weather in the Central Highlands
• Brazilian conilon output
• Indonesian production
• Soluble coffee demand
• Arabica-Robusta substitution
• Freight costs
• Producer selling behaviour

The effect of El Niño on coffee prices

El Niño represents one of the most important upside risks to the 2026–2027 forecast. Climate effects vary by region and season, but a strong event can create drought in parts of Southeast Asia, irregular rainfall in East Africa and abnormal rainfall patterns in Brazil.

Potential effects include:

• Drought risk in Vietnam and Indonesia
• Reduced Robusta yields
• Irregular flowering in Brazil
• Excessive rain during harvesting
• Flooding and transport disruption
• Higher disease pressure
• Lower bean quality

Even before crop losses are confirmed, weather forecasts can cause futures prices to rise because traders price the probability of a future shortage.

Certified stocks and the risk of sudden price rallies

Exchange-certified inventories provide a visible buffer for futures markets. In June 2026, US-certified Arabica stocks declined to approximately 0.41 million bags, the lowest level reported since February 2024. London-certified Robusta stocks were approximately 0.68 million bags.

Low stocks increase price sensitivity because buyers and short sellers have less deliverable inventory available when supply concerns appear. A larger global crop can improve the long-term outlook while low certified stocks continue to support short-term rallies.

Global exports and physical availability

Global green coffee exports declined year on year in May 2026, with the reduction mainly driven by Arabica. Robusta exports increased, reflecting improved supply from Brazil and other origins.

Physical availability is influenced not only by production but also by:

• Farmer selling decisions
• Exporter financing
• Domestic stockholding
• Port capacity
• Container availability
• Currency movements
• Government and tax policies
• Quality requirements

Production can rise while nearby export availability remains tight if farmers delay sales or logistics restrict shipments.

Demand outlook for 2026–2027

Global coffee consumption continues to show long-term growth, supported by population, urbanization, café culture, soluble coffee and increased consumption in producing countries. Demand growth may slow temporarily when retail prices rise sharply, but coffee consumption is generally more resilient than many discretionary products.

Demand support is expected from:

• China and other developing Asian markets
• Indonesia and Vietnam’s domestic markets
• Middle Eastern coffee consumption
• Ready-to-drink products
• Soluble coffee
• Premium and specialty segments

The strength of consumption means larger crops may be required for more than one season before global inventories return to comfortable levels.

Arabica versus Robusta price spread

The difference between Arabica and Robusta prices affects blend formulation and purchasing decisions. When Arabica becomes unusually expensive, manufacturers may increase Robusta content where product specifications and consumer preferences allow it.

If Brazil’s Arabica crop improves more rapidly than Robusta supply, the Arabica premium may narrow. If high-quality Arabica remains scarce while Robusta availability recovers, the premium may remain wide for selected grades.

Buyers should monitor both outright prices and the spread because a falling coffee market does not guarantee that the relative cost of their preferred blend will fall at the same rate.

Currency effects on coffee prices

Coffee is generally traded internationally in US dollars, but producers pay many expenses in local currency. Exchange rates influence whether farmers are willing to sell and how exporters price physical contracts.

A stronger US dollar can place downward pressure on commodity futures while increasing local-currency returns for exporters. A stronger Brazilian real or Vietnamese dong can reduce the incentive to sell at a given dollar price and support export offers.

Shipping, energy and fertilizer costs

Lower futures prices do not always produce an equivalent reduction in the final delivered cost. Freight, insurance, financing, energy, fertilizer and packaging can remain expensive.

Shipping disruption may increase:

• Container rates
• Transit times
• Marine insurance
• Working-capital requirements
• Inventory holding costs
• Risk premiums in physical differentials

Buyers should therefore forecast the landed cost of coffee rather than relying only on New York or London futures.

Quality differentials may remain firm

Even if benchmark prices decline, the differential paid for particular origins, certifications, screen sizes, defect limits or cup profiles may remain strong. Weather damage can increase total crop volume while reducing the percentage that qualifies for premium categories.

Premiums may remain elevated for:

• Washed Arabica
• Specialty-grade coffee
• Low-defect Robusta
• Fine Robusta
• Certified coffee
• Traceable single-origin lots
• Coffee with strict screen and moisture specifications

Buyers should define requirements through clear coffee quality and compliance specifications rather than assuming all coffee of the same origin follows the same price movement.

Three possible coffee price scenarios

Indicative planning ranges for buyers

The following scenario ranges are planning tools rather than guaranteed market forecasts. They describe potential movement from prevailing mid-2026 levels if the associated supply conditions develop.

Actual outcomes may move outside these ranges because coffee is highly sensitive to weather, speculative positioning and changes in physical inventories.

Should buyers wait for lower prices?

Waiting for a lower market can reduce purchase costs when supply is recovering, but it also leaves the buyer exposed to weather rallies and physical shortages. The correct strategy depends on inventory, cash flow, product margins and risk tolerance.

Waiting may be reasonable when:

• Inventory coverage is comfortable
• Brazilian harvest progress is improving
• Export offers are becoming more competitive
• Certified stocks are rebuilding
• The buyer can tolerate volatility

Waiting may be risky when:

• Inventory coverage is low
• The required grade is difficult to replace
• A weather event is developing
• Shipping lead times are long
• The sales price has already been fixed

Staggered purchasing strategy

A staggered purchasing strategy can reduce the risk of fixing the entire volume at an unfavourable price. Instead of choosing a single market level, the buyer divides requirements into several purchasing periods.

A practical strategy may include:

1. Secure essential short-term coverage.
2. Fix additional volume when the market declines.
3. Keep a portion open for potential harvest pressure.
4. Set maximum acceptable prices for risk events.
5. Review physical differentials separately from futures.
6. Monitor currency and freight exposure.

Fixed-price and differential contracts

A fixed-price contract provides budget certainty but can become expensive if the market declines. A differential contract fixes the physical premium or discount while leaving the futures component to be priced later.

The most suitable contract depends on:

• Buyer market knowledge
• Volume
• Financing capability
• Supplier relationship
• Required delivery window
• Ability to manage futures exposure

What coffee buyers should monitor every month

• ICO Composite Indicator Price
• New York Arabica futures
• London Robusta futures
• Brazilian harvest progress
• Vietnamese rainfall and crop development
• Certified Arabica and Robusta stocks
• Export volumes from Brazil and Vietnam
• Arabica-Robusta spread
• Brazilian real and Vietnamese dong
• Freight and insurance costs
• El Niño and La Niña forecasts
• Physical differentials for required grades

Buyer checklist for the 2026–2027 market

• Annual volume forecast completed
• Minimum inventory coverage defined
• Maximum acceptable price established
• Arabica and Robusta substitution options reviewed
• Required origins and grades identified
• Physical differentials monitored
• Freight exposure calculated
• Currency risk evaluated
• Supplier production estimates reviewed
• Alternative suppliers qualified
• Quality specifications documented
• Purchasing schedule divided into stages

Risks that could make this forecast wrong

Every coffee forecast contains significant uncertainty. The market can change rapidly because production is geographically concentrated and weather-sensitive.

The main upside risks are:

• Severe El Niño
• Brazilian frost
• Drought in Vietnam
• Excessive rain during Brazilian harvesting
• Crop disease
• Major shipping disruption
• Further decline in certified stocks
• Stronger-than-expected demand

The main downside risks are:

• Brazilian production exceeding expectations
• Strong Vietnamese and Indonesian crops
• Rapid rebuilding of exchange stocks
• Weak global economic growth
• Reduced speculative interest
• Heavy producer selling
• Lower freight and input costs

Final forecast

The most likely coffee price forecast for 2026–2027 is that Arabica and Robusta annual averages will decline from their previous extreme highs, but prices will remain volatile and vulnerable to sudden weather-driven rallies. Arabica has greater downside potential because Brazil’s projected production recovery is concentrated heavily in Arabica. Robusta is also expected to soften as Vietnamese and Brazilian availability improves, although strong industrial demand may help it stabilize during 2027.

The base case is not a return to permanently cheap coffee. Production costs, climate volatility, low inventories and growing consumption may keep prices above older historical averages. Buyers should therefore avoid relying on one exact forecast and instead prepare for bearish, base-case and bullish outcomes.

A disciplined purchasing strategy should combine staged coverage, clear quality specifications, alternative origins, regular market monitoring and a complete landed-cost calculation. Companies planning purchases from Vietnam can review available coffee export and documentation support or submit a customized wholesale coffee inquiry with the required coffee type, grade, quantity, delivery period and target market.